Electrical Engineering
SUN Tian, MIN Rui, GUO Zhuochen, LIU Xue, CAI Yuanji
[Objective] With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, the “duck curve” problem is becoming more severe. The rapid rise in the system′s net load curve over a short time period will become more pronounced, placing higher demands on the flexibility of the power system. As a novel ancillary service product, the flexible ramping product (FRP) can incentivize units to reserve certain flexible ramping capacity during the current period, in order to address changes in net load in the next period. In return, units providing this product can also receive corresponding compensation. However, existing research has paid limited attention to the uncertainty of the flexible ramping demand price curve, and there is insufficient discussion on how this product impacts market equilibrium. Moreover, the distinct characteristics of different resource providers have not been fully incorporated, and these issues still require further research to resolve. [Methods] A flexible ramping demand price curve calculation model was proposed that considered the uncertainties of both supply and demand. The model combined the characteristics of system net load, where load and renewable energy power forecast errors were influenced by different factors. A quantile regression method was employed to fit the upper and lower bound curve equations for the system′s load forecast errors, from which the system′s flexible ramping demand was calculated. Furthermore, the flexible ramping demand price curve was determined by incorporating the probability density function of the system′s net load forecast errors. Built on this calculation model, the paper further developed a power-energy-flexible ramping market equilibrium model, which extended the original mathematical model that minimized only power generation costs to one that minimized the total costs of power-energy and FRP supply. [Results] Using the IEEE 30-bus system as an example for simulation, and combining actual photovoltaic and load data from a specific region for the simulation analysis. First, the net load forecast errors are obtained by calculating the error regression curve, and the system′s flexible ramping demand price curve is plotted, providing a basis for pricing the FRP. Second, a multi-scenario market equilibrium analysis shows that the energy clearing price under the constructed model effectively reflects the system′s flexible ramping supply-demand relationship, achieving the economic optimization of both the units and the system. Furthermore, the analysis of the photovoltaic output curves in various scenarios demonstrates that the proposed model can effectively reduce the phenomenon of curtailing photovoltaic power. Additionally, the validation results show that the integration of independent energy storage can replace some high-cost gas-fired units, thereby reducing the system′s total electricity procurement cost. [Conclusions] Through the constructed model, the system can effectively adjust the procurement volume of FRPs. On one hand, this reduces the loss costs caused by the failure to procure sufficient flexible ramping capacity, and on the other hand, it significantly enhances the economic operation of the system. Under the guidance of market prices, FRPs can incentivize more flexible resources to connect to the grid and provide flexible ramping capacity, thereby creating conditions for further improving the capacity for renewable energy consumption. Additionally, independent energy storage can better match the system′s flexibility requirements, alleviating the supply-demand pressure of system flexibility while securing more profit opportunities for itself.