Electrical Engineering
ZHOU Bo, QI Yanxun, LI Weijia, LIU Yun, WANG Ligong
[Objective] A substation cost prediction model based on an improved long short-term memory (LSTM) network, spatio-temporal long short-term memory (ST-LSTM) network, was proposed to address the limitations of existing substation cost estimation methods in terms of prediction accuracy and computational efficiency, thus improving the cost prediction accuracy and efficiency. Based on building information modeling (BIM) data, a dual-stream memory conversion mechanism and ZigZag spatio-temporal memory flow are introduced in the model to effectively capture and learn the complex dynamic features in spatio-temporal data, thereby achieving unified modeling of the short-term spatial detail changes and long-term temporal dynamic evolution process. [Methods] Firstly, BIM cost data were preprocessed, including data cleaning, standardization, and time series division, to ensure data integrity and usability. Then, the ST-LSTM network model was built. By improving the triple gating mechanism of traditional LSTM networks, the ZigZag spatio-temporal memory flow and dual-stream memory conversion mechanism were introduced to enhance the model's ability to extract and fuse spatio-temporal features. At the model training phase, the grid search method was adopted to optimize the number of hidden layer neurons, mean square error (MSE) was employed as the loss function, and the Adam optimizer was combined to complete the updating of model parameters. In the experiment, the actual BIM cost data from 105 substations were selected and divided into the training set, validation set, and test set in a 3∶1∶1 ratio for model training and performance evaluation. [Results] By carrying out multiple rounds of simulation experiments, the prediction performance of the ST-LSTM network model, particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, and traditional LSTM network model was compared and analyzed. Additionally, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Pearson correlation coefficient were adopted as the evaluation indexes. The results show that the highest accuracy of the ST-LSTM network model is approximately 95% in short-term prediction and more than 90% in long-term prediction, and its overall average prediction accuracy exceeds 90%. Thus, this model significantly outperforms the PSO algorithm and traditional LSTM network models. In terms of computational efficiency, the average running time of the ST-LSTM network model is 1.1 s, slightly longer than 0.5 s of the PSO algorithm but shorter than 1.2 s of the traditional LSTM network model. However, the values are all within an acceptable range of engineering applications. Further analysis reveals that the ST-LSTM network model demonstrates more significant prediction advantages when dealing with large-scale datasets characterized by complex spatio-temporal features. [Conclusions] The substation cost prediction method based on the ST-LSTM network model can effectively extract and fuse multidimensional spatio-temporal features, significantly improving the accuracy and overall computational efficiency of short-term and long-term cost prediction. Compared with the PSO algorithm and traditional LSTM network models, the ST-LSTM network model has a significant advantage in prediction performance, but its computational complexity is relatively high, thereby putting forward higher requirements for computing resources and training time. Future research will focus on model structure optimization and computational complexity reduction to enhance the model's application feasibility and promotional significance in engineering practices.